And then there were two. Giuliani’s strategy of ignoring the early primaries in hopes of winning Florida and taking that momentum to Super Tuesday looked good when no clear front runner had emerged after South Carolina, but as any poker player will tell you, when someone goes all in, they’re either sure of winning, or hoping to bluff the others out of the hand. And when the others have the resources to call your bluff, you may as well fold and go home.
So Rudy goes home and throws his support to his friend John McCain, who also shares the same support base – moderate Republicans and independents looking for someone strong on national security. In fact, Fred Thompson’s withdrawal also favors his friend John McCain (and Mike Huckabee, but I don’t think he will be a factor going forward). What is impressive about McCain’s victory is that it happened in a closed primary, meaning that he couldn’t rely on his traditional base of independents and crossover Democrats.
This brings it down to a tantalizing race between two individuals who can’t stand one another. It began in the debate leading up to the New Hampshire primary, when Romney deflected a question about whether water boarding constituted torture. McCain, the ex POW, who is in the best position to reflect on whether torture is a matter of semantics, called him out on it. Then there is Romney’s general unpopularity amongst the other Republican candidates, a result of his flip flopping on the issues, his wealth which makes him less reliant on fund raising, and the fact that he comes off as a product rather than a person, willing to say or do anything to get elected.
With either of these candidates, the traditional Republican base is going to have to hold their nose when they vote, because there is a lot to dislike about them. McCain’s rebel streak has never endeared him to GOP honchos, and he has broken with the rank and file on many occasions, notably on campaign finance reform and immigration. Many evangelicals, on the other hand will not vote for Romney under any circumstances, although he gets the majority of those who still like George Bush.
Of the two, McCain would be a stronger candidate in the general election, particularly if the Democratic nominee is Hillary Clinton, where he could effectively contrast his experience and credibility on security issues against her faux experience. (If Hillary were to become the Democratic nominee, conservatives might just turn out to vote against her, no matter who the GOP candidate is.) But he still faces questions about his age, his support for Bush, when others were scurrying away, and his unpredictability. Romney, the CEO candidate, would also have to battle against his identification with the last MBA president, whose business credentials did little to prevent the nation from sinking into recession. In addition, there are his high negatives, not only with fellow candidates, but the electorate at large.
For many Republicans, this may boil down to a choice between the evil of two lessers.
Filed under: Election, Politics | Tagged: Giuliani, McCain, Republican primary, Romney
