Against expectations, Hillary Clinton has broken Barack Obama’s winning streak at eleven, taking Rhode Island and the key states of Ohio and surprisingly, Texas, with its confusing primary-caucus combination, where polls had Obama with a slim lead going into March 4. She confounded critics like Jonathan Alter of Newsweek who had called on her to withdraw gracefully, although he has a valid point when he says that the delegate math is against her. Even if she wins every primary between now and August, because of the rule of proportionality, she will not make up enough ground to overtake Obama in the pledged delegate count before the convention, because of his landslide wins on Super Tuesday.
The fact that she is still around is due to a confluence of events, starting with, of all things, Saturday Night Live. In a skit they did last week, the media was pilloried for giving Obama a free pass, while hammering Clinton for every little misstep. As if SNL set the media agenda, the press then started taking a hard look at issues that could trip Obama up – his stance on NAFTA, his ties with fund raiser Tony Rezko, and his qualifications to be commander in chief. The scales have apparently fallen from their eyes and the spell Obama cast over the media has been broken!
Clinton’s camp can now argue that Obama cannot win the big states – California, New York, New Jersey and now Ohio and Texas. To which Obama supporters can counter that she cannot win swing states – Missouri, Colorado, Wisconsin. The truth is, during the primary season, it is a zero sum game, so the same rules will not necessarily apply in the general election. However, having said that, I believe that democrats in the big, delegate rich states will coalesce around Obama if he is the nominee, but the same may not hold true for the swing states if Clinton wins.
The democratic race has become muddy again and it looks increasingly as if superdelegates will be playing a key role. (Uh-oh.) The long race has the benefit of energizing the party and keeping the democrats on the front page, but a drawn out fight may also leave the victor bruised and exhausted for the final round, where a spry and rested John McCain awaits.
Filed under: Blogroll, Election, Politics | Tagged: Barack Obama, Election, HIllary Clinton, Saturday Night Live
